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Nat-Gas Prices Plunge as Warm Weather Forecasts Dampen Demand
18 Nov, 2025
Summary
- Nat-gas prices fell sharply due to warmer-than-normal weather forecasts
- US gas production near record high, inventories above 5-year average
- Electricity output rose, but active nat-gas rigs declined from 2-year peak
On November 18, 2025, natural gas prices fell sharply due to warmer-than-normal weather forecasts for November 22-26 in the eastern half of the United States. This bearish weather outlook has pressured nat-gas prices, which were also weighed down by high US natural gas production and inventories.
The US is currently producing near-record levels of natural gas, with the Energy Information Administration recently raising its 2025 production forecast by 1.0% to 107.67 billion cubic feet per day. This surge in supply has been a key bearish factor for nat-gas prices. Additionally, US natural gas inventories as of November 7 were 4.5% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate supplies.
However, there were some supportive factors for gas prices. The Edison Electric Institute reported that US electricity output rose 0.12% year-over-year in the week ending November 8, and was up 2.84% over the past 52 weeks. But the number of active US natural gas rigs fell by 3 to 125 rigs in the week ending November 14, down from a 2.25-year high of 128 rigs the prior week.
