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Housing Peak Signals Imminent Market Crash
5 Sep
Summary
- An 18-year property cycle predicts a housing peak in 2025-26.
- D.R. Horton's performance signals a potential stock market top.
- Bitcoin could reach $120,000 if credit conditions allow.
Macro analyst Jason Pizzino has presented an 18-year property cycle theory, suggesting the US housing market is approaching its peak around 2025-26. This cycle, derived from extensive US sales data, points to a potential trough in 2029-30. Recent data, including a 1.5% year-on-year rise in US home prices in June and a 10.5% drop in new-home sales in July, adds weight to this prediction.
Pizzino's analysis extends to the stock market, using homebuilder D.R. Horton as a bellwether. Historically, D.R. Horton has peaked before the broader market. A projected peak for D.R. Horton in late 2024, based on the same cycle, suggests a possible stock market top around late 2026 or early 2027. A drop below $130 for D.R. Horton would reinforce this forecast.
Bitcoin is also a factor in Pizzino's outlook. While it has seen a significant rally from its July low, reaching near $79,700, further gains may be limited. Pizzino estimates Bitcoin could reach approximately $120,000, with $180,000 being a more challenging target amid tightening credit. Analysts like Benjamin Cowen advise a consistent investment strategy regardless of market cycle predictions, emphasizing trading the current market rather than an anticipated one.
