Job Market "Great Freeze" Nears Reckoning

The "Great Freeze" in the job market, characterized by low hiring and firing rates, is nearing a critical point in 2026. Experts predict a "moment of reckoning" where uncertainty may finally subside. This could lead to either a substantial increase in hiring and a return to a more typical labor market, or a downturn with increased layoffs and a potential recession.

Businesses, like Michael Salvatore's hospitality venture, have been "paralyzed" by economic uncertainty in 2025, delaying expansion plans. However, some economists, like Aaron Terrazas, anticipate a boost in job creation, possibly by mid-2026, influenced by new investment provisions. Despite some mixed signals, a majority of employers surveyed in September still expect moderate to significant hiring.

The healthcare sector remains a key driver of US job growth, and its performance will be crucial. While widespread layoffs are not currently prevalent, the sustainability of the "low-hire, low-fire" environment is questioned as baby boomers retire. Ultimately, the coming year is expected to reveal whether the market thaws or cracks.