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CPI Report Questions: Is Inflation Data Flawed?
19 Dec
Summary
- October/November CPI data shows plausible drops, raising concerns.
- Underlying inflation may remain above the Fed's 2% target.
- Tariffs are impacting inflation, expected to continue into next year.
Recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October and November has sparked debate among economists regarding its accuracy. Concerns have been raised about potential data collection issues, leading some experts to question the plausibility of the reported declines in inflation.
Despite these data concerns, the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to persist through the first half of the upcoming year. While year-over-year inflation rates may decrease in the latter half of the year as tariff effects roll off, underlying inflation is projected to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, possibly settling between 2.2% and 2.5%.
Economists suggest that even with cooling inflation, cumulative price increases over the past five years continue to affect consumer confidence and affordability. With interest rates near neutral and easier fiscal policy, the impulse to bring inflation back to the 2% target may be insufficient, suggesting inflation could remain slightly elevated.
