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RBI Forecasters See Slower Growth, Lower Inflation Ahead
7 Jun
Summary
- FY27 real GDP growth projected at 6.5% by forecasters, lower than RBI's 6.6%.
- FY27 CPI inflation forecast at 4.9%, better than RBI's 5.1% projection.
- Forecasters see 6.9% GDP growth and 4.5% inflation for FY28.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) survey of professional forecasters indicates a slightly tempered outlook for the Indian economy.
For the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27), the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) projects a real GDP growth rate of 6.5%. This figure is marginally lower than the central bank's own projection of 6.6%.
In contrast, the SPF anticipates a more favorable inflation scenario for FY27, forecasting Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 4.9%. This is a more optimistic view than the RBI's projection of 5.1% for the same period.
Looking ahead to FY28, the forecasters expect real GDP growth to rebound to 6.9%, with CPI inflation moderating significantly to 4.5%. The survey also noted a high probability that real GDP growth will fall within the 6.5-6.9% range for both FY27 and FY28.
