India's Economy Defies Global Headwinds

India's economy continues to exhibit strong resilience, navigating external uncertainties with robust domestic fundamentals and sustained private sector activity. EY anticipates a real GDP growth of 6.6-6.8% for the current fiscal year, with CPI inflation projected at 4.5% and nominal GDP growth at 12.5%.

A gradual normalization of global energy markets is expected to alleviate supply-side pressures and improve cost conditions, positively impacting growth and inflation outcomes for FY27. Should global crude prices stabilize at lower levels and shipping routes normalize, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained.

High-frequency indicators reflect underlying economic strength, with healthy manufacturing and services activity, steady credit growth, and resilient automobile demand. The nation's medium-term growth prospects are supported by strong domestic drivers, including consumption, investment, and services sector performance.

Strategic focus on infrastructure development and supply chain resilience will bolster India's capacity to manage future geopolitical and economic uncertainties. The country's well-established petroleum refining sector further enhances energy security and mitigates external vulnerabilities.