India Keeps Sugar Exports Flowing Amid Output Concerns

As of May 6, 2026, India has indicated no intention to curb sugar exports, despite facing lower production levels. Government sources revealed that stable prices suggest weaker demand has effectively offset some of the production shortfall. India, a leading global sugar exporter, had previously permitted the export of 1.59 million metric tons, anticipating output to exceed domestic needs.

However, production is now expected to lag consumption for a second consecutive year due to weakened cane yields in key growing regions. Forecasts of El Nino potentially disrupting the monsoon season further heighten the risk of next season's output falling below initial estimates. Despite these challenges, the government maintains that sugar supplies remain adequate and sees no immediate need to restrict shipments.

The current season's output (to September 2026) is unlikely to exceed 28 million tons, aligning with estimated annual demand. The country began the 2025-26 sugar season with approximately 5 million tons in carryover stocks. Recent softening in sugar consumption, partly due to Middle East conflict-related cooking gas shortages affecting eateries, has also contributed to the balanced supply outlook.