India's LNG Imports Plummet Amid Price Surge

India experienced a substantial 12.5% month-on-month decrease in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in March, reaching 1.68 million tonnes. This decline was directly linked to a doubling of global spot prices to $25/MMBtu, alongside supply chain disruptions, exacerbating a trend that began in February.

The most striking shift occurred in India's sourcing pattern, with Qatar's traditional dominance collapsing. Qatar's share of LNG supply plummeted from approximately 39.6% in February to a mere 3.6% in March. This significant pivot saw Oman emerge as the top supplier, followed by the United States and Nigeria, diversifying India's import basket.

This price shock has led to a restructuring of demand within India. Consumption is now being prioritized, with gas increasingly allocated to the fertilizer and city gas sectors. The power sector has absorbed the most significant impact, acting as the primary release valve for demand adjustments. This shift implies higher import costs due to elevated prices and longer shipping routes.

Looking ahead, uncertainty persists in the global energy markets, with a potential normalization in oil prices taking several weeks and gas markets requiring longer due to operational challenges. Analysts predict elevated and volatile prices for crude oil and LNG to continue into April.

Crisil revised its FY27 price assumptions upward, anticipating Brent crude at $82-87 per barrel and LNG at $14-17 per MMBtu, reflecting tighter balances and ongoing geopolitical risks.