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Home Depot's Cautious 2026 Outlook Signals Housing Slump Continues
10 Dec
Summary
- Home Depot expects flat to 2% comparable sales growth for fiscal 2026.
- The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 outlook, anticipating around 3% total sales growth.
- A market recovery scenario suggests higher growth if housing activity accelerates.
Home Depot has released a cautious preliminary forecast for fiscal year 2026, signaling expectations of continued housing market softness. The retailer anticipates comparable sales to range from flat to a 2% increase. Total sales are projected to grow between 2.5% and 4.5%, with targeted operating margins between 12.4% and 12.6%.
The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 outlook, projecting approximately 3% total sales growth, bolstered by an estimated $2 billion contribution from the recently acquired specialty building products distributor GMS. Comparable sales for fiscal 2025 are expected to be slightly positive, with plans to open 12 new stores.
Home Depot also outlined a market recovery scenario, where more favorable conditions, including accelerated housing activity and increased spending on larger projects, could lead to total sales growth of 5% to 6% and earnings per share rising in the mid-to-high-single digits.
