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Oil Prices Defy Ceasefire Hopes: $85 Target Set
21 Apr
Summary
- Brokerages predict high oil prices near $85 per barrel.
- Supplies via Strait of Hormuz remain at 10% of pre-war levels.
- Geopolitical risk premium may add $5-10 to oil prices.
Crude oil prices are expected to stay high, with domestic brokerages forecasting an average of $85 per barrel in the near future. This projection holds even if the Strait of Hormuz blockade eases, as supplies remain critically low at 10% of pre-war volumes. Countries are actively utilizing alternative export routes, which have seen a sharp increase in activity.
Analysts predict that the demand-supply gap, coupled with efforts to replenish strategic oil reserves and the gradual restoration of crude output, will keep prices elevated. Furthermore, an estimated $5-10 per barrel geopolitical risk premium is anticipated following the substantial supply disruption. Brent futures have experienced volatility, trading near $95 per barrel amid ongoing ceasefire discussions.
