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Gold Bull Case Intact Despite Pullback, Says Goldman
3 Jul
Summary
- Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook for gold prices.
- Key drivers include sovereign and central bank demand.
- Major banks predict significant gold price increases by 2026.
Gold investors recently faced a period of uncertainty, anticipating a downturn as hopes for interest rate cuts diminished and the dollar strengthened. Despite a four-month decline in gold prices, Wall Street institutions like Goldman Sachs assert that the long-term bullish trend is not over.
Goldman Sachs highlights underlying demand factors, including sovereign wealth funds and emerging-market central banks diversifying their reserves. This fundamental demand is seen as more robust than short-term ETF trading, suggesting the recent pullback is temporary. The bank forecasts gold prices to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.
Other major banks share a positive outlook. JPMorgan predicts gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by Q4 2026, citing sustained central bank demand and macroeconomic uncertainty. UBS anticipates gold at $5,200 per ounce within the next 12 months, driven by shifts in Federal Reserve policy and dollar pressure. Morgan Stanley also targets $5,200 per ounce for H2 2026, contingent on stronger ETF inflows, while Bank of America has a $4,800 per ounce target by Q4 2026, having recently trimmed its near-term outlook due to weaker investor demand and Federal Reserve headwinds.
