What is the World Economic Forum's outlook on global trade?

The WEF sees global trade evolving towards more regional, digital, and flexible arrangements, with a rise in mini-lateral deals.

How is digital trade performing compared to merchandise trade?

Digitally delivered services grew by approximately 6% last year, significantly outperforming merchandise trade's 2.4% growth.

What types of trade agreements are expected to grow, according to WEF economists?

Economists expect continued growth in bilateral trade agreements (94%) and an acceleration of regional trade agreements (64%).

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Global Trade Reshapes: Mini-Laterals and Digital Surge

19 Jan

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Summary

Multilateral trade systems face challenges, with mini-lateral deals emerging.
Digital services trade grows twice as fast as merchandise trade.
Economists predict continued growth in bilateral and regional trade agreements.

Global Trade Reshapes: Mini-Laterals and Digital Surge

The landscape of international trade is dramatically shifting, according to Kimberley Botwright of the World Economic Forum. Emerging trends indicate a move away from purely multilateral systems towards more flexible cooperation, including mini-lateral and plurilateral agreements among a select group of nations.

Economists surveyed by the WEF foresee robust growth in both bilateral and regional trade deals. Concurrently, digital trade is expanding at a remarkable pace, far exceeding the growth rate of physical merchandise trade, highlighting a fundamental change in commerce.

This evolving trade environment, characterized by regionalization and digitalization, is prompting new negotiations for digital trade rules, as seen with ASEAN's digital economy framework. The overall outlook suggests global trade is not diminishing but rather reshaping itself for greater flexibility.