Global Coal Production Set for Stagnation in 2026

Global coal production is poised for stagnation in 2026, with an anticipated annual growth of a mere 0.2%, reaching 9,355.8 million tonnes. This represents a significant deceleration compared to previous years, driven by intensifying structural challenges across key producing nations. Weakening demand in China, persistent oversupply issues in Indonesia and the United States, and sustained price softness collectively dampen incentives for substantial production expansion.

China's coal output is projected to decline by 0.8% in 2026, a historic first since 2016. This downturn stems from excess domestic supply, stagnant downstream demand, and elevated inventory levels. Despite coal's role in energy security, reduced electricity demand growth and expanded renewable capacity are curbing its use.

In the United States, coal production is forecast to shrink by 5.1% as utilities accelerate their move away from coal-fired generation. Coal's diminishing share in the national power mix, falling below 20% in 2024, is expected to continue its decline. This structural shift, coupled with limited export growth, will outweigh any short-term support, leading to sustained production decreases.