Fed Braces for Deluge of Economic Data, Volatility Looms

As of November 17, 2025, the bond market is bracing for a deluge of economic data that will provide clarity on the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions. The end of the recent government shutdown means that agencies will start releasing key reports that were held back since the start of October, including the crucial September employment report due on Thursday.

The lack of government data during the closure made it difficult for traders to gauge the direction of the US economy. However, private data sources continued to underscore the weakening in the job market, which drove the Fed to lower its benchmark rate at the September and October meetings, ending a nine-month pause.

Now, there is a risk that the government's figures may surprise to the upside by showing that businesses have been adding jobs at a stronger-than-expected pace. This could cause policymakers, who remain mindful of elevated inflation, to hold rates steady at the December 10th meeting or push back on the market's expectations for further cuts in 2026.

"As the economic data starts to trickle in, it is possible that the labor market shows more stability," said Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Investment Management. "Then the market might further take down odds of a December cut and volatility may rise."