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Europe Faces Imminent Oil Shortages: Strategists Warn
18 May
Summary
- Global oil stockpiles are drastically falling, with recovery unlikely before late 2027.
- Europe could face immediate physical oil shortages by the end of this month.
- Prices may surge 'non-linearly' once shortages become apparent.
Global oil stockpiles are critically low, with strategists forecasting a potential recovery only by December 2027. Europe may confront immediate physical oil shortages by the end of May 2026, as warned by Jeff Currie, executive co-chairman at Abaxx Commodity Exchange.
Currie indicated that the current severity of the supply crunch is not fully reflected in oil prices or policy discussions. He anticipates prices will move 'non-linear' once shortages manifest, highlighting the potential cost of securing the last available oil molecules.
The oil market is currently in its 'shoulder months,' typically a period of lower demand. However, with the U.S. Memorial Day and U.K. spring bank holidays approaching, demand for gasoline, diesel, and oil is expected to increase significantly, making shortages more acutely felt.
