Europe Faces Jet Fuel Shortage Amid Rising Tensions

Europe is confronting a substantial jet fuel deficit, with projections indicating a shortfall of 510,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. This precarious situation arises from ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran war, which has disrupted traditional supply routes from the Middle East, cutting off a significant portion of Europe's jet fuel imports. The continent is now increasingly turning to more distant suppliers, including Nigeria, the United States, and Canada, to meet demand.

South Korea has emerged as a crucial supplier, with its jet fuel exports to Europe reaching a four-year high in September 2026. Commodities intelligence firm Kpler reports that European imports from South Korea have averaged 129,000 barrels per day this month. This influx coincides with critically low inventory levels across Europe, with the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil refining and storage hub experiencing its lowest jet fuel stocks in seven years as of the week ending September 10, 2026. These factors combined highlight Europe's heightened vulnerability to further supply disruptions.

The widening price difference between Asian and European jet fuel benchmarks is making exports to Europe more profitable for Asian producers. South Korea's refinery crude processing rates have increased, leading to a seven-year high in jet fuel output in July 2026 and a 3-1/2-year high in exports. Traders anticipate continued robust refinery runs, suggesting that this trend of increased supply to Europe is likely to persist as the continent strives to bridge its jet fuel deficit.