Coffee Prices to Plummet Like Cocoa? Experts Warn of Drop

Coffee industry experts are drawing parallels between the current coffee market and the recent trajectory of cocoa prices, projecting a significant downturn for coffee in the upcoming months. Carley Garner, a senior commodities strategist, stated, "I do think coffee is the new cocoa," expressing confidence that prices will fall. This prediction follows cocoa's dramatic price collapse of over 70% after reaching a record high in December 2024.

High prices have already begun to affect consumer habits. An NCA poll from January 2026 indicated that 61% of U.S. respondents were cutting back on coffee expenses, opting for more home brewing or cheaper brands. While the number of coffee drinkers has not decreased, demand growth stalled in 2025. This trend has led to a shift towards more affordable robusta beans over pricier arabicas.

Analysts forecast coffee prices to drop to approximately $2 per pound by the end of 2026, with some predicting even lower figures like $1.80 per pound. This anticipated decrease is expected to eventually stimulate demand, with projections of a 2% increase in 2026. However, the impact of an expected record crop in Brazil may be tempered as farmers are expected to sell gradually.

Despite comparisons to cocoa's sharp decline, some analysts note differences in demand trends between the two commodities. Carlos Mera, chief coffee analyst for Rabobank, foresees coffee prices reaching consumers, boosting demand again. He anticipates a 2% growth in 2026, contrasting with the stalled growth observed in 2025.