How is the weather in West Africa affecting cocoa prices?

Favorable weather in West Africa, with rain and sunshine, is helping cocoa trees bloom and develop, leading to expectations of higher yields and thus lower cocoa prices.

What did Mondelez report about the cocoa crop?

Mondelez reported that the current cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average and significantly higher than last year's crop.

Why are cocoa inventories falling?

ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in U.S. ports have fallen to a nine-month low, indicating a tighter supply in the market.

Home / Business and Economy / West African Rains Boost Cocoa Yields, Lower Prices

West African Rains Boost Cocoa Yields, Lower Prices

19 Dec

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Summary

Favorable West African weather promises increased cocoa yields and supply.
Mondelez reports cocoa pod counts significantly above average.
Shrinking inventories and index inclusion offer some price support.

West African Rains Boost Cocoa Yields, Lower Prices

Cocoa futures settled lower as recent favorable weather in West Africa points towards increased supply. Farmers in Ivory Coast and Ghana have reported beneficial rainfall and sunshine, aiding cocoa tree development and bloom. These conditions are expected to boost crop yields, a factor that typically exerts downward pressure on prices.

Despite the bearish supply outlook, several factors are providing support for cocoa. Inventories monitored by ICE in U.S. ports have fallen to a nine-month low. Additionally, financial analysts have revised global cocoa surplus estimates downwards, indicating a tighter market than previously anticipated. The upcoming inclusion of NY cocoa futures in the Bloomberg Commodity Index starting January 2026 is also expected to attract significant investment.