Bitcoin Miner Flows Decouple from Price Surge, Signaling Market Shift

As of October 11, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in the low $120,000 range, following a slight slump from its recent highs. However, the cryptocurrency's market dynamics have undergone a significant shift in recent months, as indicated by a sharp decline in the miner correlation.

According to data from Binance, the 30-day rolling correlation indicator between Bitcoin's price and miner flows to the exchange has tumbled to its lowest level since March 2025. On October 3, this indicator fell to -0.157, its lowest reading in over five months, and has remained close to the -0.10 range since then.

This shift from a positive correlation range of 0.1 to 0.5 during Q2 2025 suggests that the recent surge in BTC price has not been driven by miner flows to exchanges. In previous cycles, miner flows played a key role in Bitcoin's price movement, as miners often transferred larger amounts of BTC to exchanges to sell and take profits when prices rose.

However, the current cycle's positive price action can be attributed to increased demand from investors and institutions, rather than miner selling. This indicates a phase of "price independence" where miners are opting to hold their BTC rather than sell during times of price appreciation. A fall in miner signal is usually considered a bullish signal, as it reduces BTC's circulating supply.

That said, if the correlation turns strongly positive again, it could signal the return of selling pressure and a medium-term price correction could be expected. At present, the BTC market is showing a healthy balance between demand and supply.