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BigBear.ai Stock: AI Hype vs. Reality
14 Dec, 2025
Summary
- BigBear.ai's revenue declined 20% to $33.1 million in Q3.
- Positive Q3 earnings were due to a non-cash derivative change.
- Gross margins fell to 22.4% with negative free cash flow.
BigBear.ai, an AI data analytics firm, has seen its stock price surge, attracting investor attention. However, a closer look reveals concerning financial trends that contradict its growth stock status. The company recently reported a significant 20% decrease in revenue, falling to $33.1 million for its third quarter. This marks a continuation of its struggle to achieve sales growth, raising doubts about its fundamental performance.
Investors should exercise caution regarding BigBear.ai's reported positive earnings per share for the third quarter. This figure was influenced by a $26 million non-cash change in derivative liabilities, rather than organic operational improvements. Critically, the company's core AI analytics business is not generating consistent positive operating income, with gross margins shrinking to 22.4% compared to the previous year.
Further compounding these concerns, BigBear.ai posted negative free cash flow of $9.8 million in the third quarter. This indicates that the company is expending more cash than it is generating from its operations. These persistent financial headwinds suggest that the current investor enthusiasm may not be supported by the company's underlying financial health.
