What is Australia's current fertility rate projection?

Australia's fertility rate is projected to fall to a historic low of 1.42 children per woman in 2025-26.

How will the Centre for Population's findings affect Australia?

The findings will inform long-term national planning, influencing Australia's economy, housing market, and essential services over the next 40 years.

What are the government's plans for falling birth rates in Australia?

The government is rolling out policies to support families and ease pressure, including universal early education and expanded paid parental leave.

Home / Business and Economy / Australia's Birth Rate Hits Historic Low

Australia's Birth Rate Hits Historic Low

12 Jan

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Summary

Fertility rate to fall to 1.42 in 2025-26.
Population growth forecasts reduced by 150,000.
Western Australia to lead growth at 1.8%.

Australia's Birth Rate Hits Historic Low

Australia is facing a historic low in its birth rate, with the fertility rate expected to drop to 1.42 children per woman in 2025-26. This significant demographic change, detailed in the 2025 Population Statement, is well below the replacement rate of 2.1 and signals a reshaping of the nation's economy and essential services over the next 40 years. The total population is now projected to reach 31.5 million by 2035-36, approximately 150,000 fewer than previously forecast.

Net overseas migration has also dipped, contributing to a cooling population growth. While migration is expected to stabilize, uncertainties persist post-Covid. The government is implementing policies to support families and ease pressure, aiming to align migration with national priorities. Concurrently, Australia's population is ageing, with life expectancies projected to increase and the median age set to rise to 40.2 by 2035-36.

Population growth will vary significantly across states, with Western Australia anticipated to experience the highest growth at 1.8%, while Tasmania is projected for minimal growth. Urbanisation is set to accelerate, with a greater proportion of Australians living in capital cities. Major cities like Sydney and Melbourne are expected to reach 8 million residents by 2050, highlighting ongoing urban development trends.