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ASML Shares Tumble on China Sales Restriction Fears
7 Apr
Summary
- US lawmakers proposed a bill potentially restricting ASML's sales to China.
- ASML's DUV immersion lithography tools could be affected by new rules.
- Analysts differ on financial impact, with some predicting EPS reduction.
ASML's stock price saw a decline on Tuesday, April 7, 2026, after U.S. lawmakers introduced legislation that could further restrict the company's sales to China. This proposed bill, if enacted by the U.S. and enforced by the Netherlands, would impose new limitations on ASML, potentially blocking sales and servicing of its critical DUV immersion lithography tools to Chinese customers.
ASML, a dominant producer of these essential chip-making tools, faces competition from Japanese and Chinese firms. Analysts from Citi noted their negative view on this development. While ASML did not provide a comment, the Dutch government stated it would not comment on U.S. legislative proposals. Market analysts presented differing opinions on the financial consequences, with ASML having previously forecasted China sales to represent 20% of its total in 2026, though older machine sales would remain unaffected.
Degroof Petercam analysts estimated a "single digit" percentage weakening of ASML's sales, whereas JPMorgan projected an EPS reduction of up to 10%. JPMorgan also suggested that while sales to other regions might increase, they would not fully offset the lost revenue from China. The most significant impact, according to JPMorgan, would be on global markets, potentially exacerbating the existing tight capacity for chips worldwide.
