Anthropic IPO: Valuing Tomorrow's AI

As Anthropic prepares for a potentially record-breaking Initial Public Offering (IPO), Wall Street is adopting an unconventional valuation method. Investors are scrutinizing future revenue projections, specifically looking two years ahead, to determine the AI company's worth. Anthropic is reportedly forecasting revenues between $190 billion and $200 billion for 2028.

This forward-looking valuation strategy is employed due to Anthropic's immense growth and substantial investments in AI infrastructure. Traditional valuation methods based on current earnings are less effective for companies like Anthropic, which are heavily investing in computing power, model training, and talent acquisition. Comparables such as Cloudflare, Palantir, and SpaceX are being analyzed to benchmark Anthropic's potential market performance.

Anthropic's revenue trajectory shows remarkable acceleration, with its run rate increasing from approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025 to over $47 billion by May 2026. The company has also projected at least $10.9 billion in revenue for the second quarter of 2026, anticipating its first quarterly operating profit. This rapid expansion fuels investor confidence in its long-term revenue and margin growth.

The valuation ultimately rests on the expectation that Anthropic's current substantial spending will pave the way for significantly higher future revenues and improved profit margins. As AI technology advances and the company scales, operational costs are anticipated to become a smaller proportion of overall revenue, potentially leading to strong profitability.