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Adidas: Running Towards Record Growth Beyond World Cup
6 Jul
Summary
- UBS reiterates 'Buy' rating with a 219 euro price target for Adidas stock.
- World Cup offers structural growth, not just a temporary sales spike.
- Running category shows strong momentum, growing 28% in Q1 2026.
Analysts at UBS have reiterated their 'Buy' rating on Adidas stock, setting a 12-month price target of 219 euros. This optimistic outlook is underpinned by several structural growth drivers expected to extend well beyond the current FIFA World Cup.
The World Cup is anticipated to act as a significant catalyst for Adidas, enhancing its long-term standing in the vital U.S. market, which constitutes approximately 20% of its total sales. While some investors express concern about a potential one-off sales boost, UBS suggests this view is simplistic.
Instead, the tournament could drive demand substitution and amplify brand visibility in North America. Improving U.S. margins are also expected as increased scale leads to better operating leverage. The company's profitability in North America, with a gross margin around 45.4%, still lags the group-wide 50.8%, but market share gaps narrow in higher soccer participation areas.
Furthermore, a separate surge in demand for running apparel presents another robust growth avenue. This category, which accounts for about 12% of Adidas' sales, grew by an impressive 28% in the first quarter of 2026. Adidas has expressed confidence in the sustainability of this momentum, supported by an expanded product range and more localized regional strategies.
