Oscar Race: Favorites Hold Steady, Excitement in Margins

The current awards season narrative for Best Picture remains remarkably consistent, with four films – 'Hamnet,' 'One Battle After Another,' 'Sinners,' and 'Sentimental Value' – holding their presumed frontrunner status months after initial festival buzz. This steadiness, however, masks underlying shifts occurring at the edges of the race.

While established favorites may face the risk of peaking too early, their positions seem secure. Yet, the nuanced ranked-choice voting system for Oscar nominations emphasizes passionate support over broad consensus. This dynamic creates opportunities for smaller, more distinctive films to gain traction.

Attention is shifting to potential dark horses and films that could gain traction through below-the-line branches or international voter blocs. These hidden contenders, though longshots, could surprise by appearing on enough ballots to secure nominations, proving that the most compelling stories might be found beyond the obvious frontrunners.