Grammys' Best New Artist Race Wide Open as Superstars Sit Out

The 2026 Grammys' best new artist race is shaping up to be a wide-open affair, a stark contrast to the stacked 2025 competition that saw Chappell Roan emerge victorious. As of October 2nd, 2025, the field for the 68th annual ceremony appears fully up for grabs, with very few sure-thing nominees by the time the eligibility period closed at the end of August.

This shift comes after a year dominated by long-established artists on the Billboard charts, with major releases from the likes of Morgan Wallen, Tyler, The Creator, and Bad Bunny. The penthouse of the Hot 100 has also been unusually stagnant, with smashes like Kendrick Lamar's "Not Like Us" and Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars' "Die With a Smile" competing at the 2025 Grammys.

However, the biggest exception is "Ordinary" by singer-songwriter Alex Warren, whose breakout hit could make him a front-runner for best new artist. Warren's victory at the MTV Video Music Awards in September has further boosted his profile. But he faces an uphill battle, as a male artist hasn't won the category since Chance the Rapper in 2017, and rock-adjacent acts are rare winners in the 21st century.

Other contenders include alt-pop newcomer sombr, whose streaming hits "Back to Friends" and "Undressed" have yet to crack the top 10 of the Hot 100, and R&B breakout Leon Thomas, whose pre-eligibility studio output may complicate his chances. The field remains wide open, and a best new artist nomination or win can still have a transformative effect, as seen with jazz artist Samara Joy's streaming surge after her 2023 victory.