A24's Holmes Doc Eyes Box Office Surprise

Amidst a general box office downturn, A24's "You Can See Everything," a documentary focusing on convicted fraudster Elizabeth Holmes, is emerging as an unexpected contender. With a limited release in approximately 800 theaters, the film is projected to gross at least $8 million, boasting an impressive per-theater average.

This performance could position "You Can See Everything" as the most successful opening weekend for a non-music documentary since the COVID-19 pandemic. It aims to recapture the specialty success seen in the 2010s with films like "RBG" and "Won't You Be My Neighbor?," a space that has struggled in recent years, dominated instead by music documentaries.

The documentary's buzz began with a surprise premiere at the Telluride Film Festival and a viral teaser. It currently holds a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes from 50 reviews, with speculation arising about a potential Best Picture Oscar nomination. The film's origins, with Holmes inviting A24 to her home before her prison sentence, add to its unique narrative.

Beyond the story of Holmes' downfall at Theranos, the film probes the nature of documentary filmmaking itself. The second half of the film, which follows Nathan Fielder's continued work on the project after Holmes begins her prison sentence, has generated significant intrigue. Critics are divided on whether to reveal plot details or encourage audiences to experience it spoiler-free.

If "You Can See Everything" surpasses $22 million domestically, it would become the highest-grossing non-music documentary since "Won't You Be My Neighbor?" in 2018. Despite a challenging theatrical market for documentaries, its strong performance offers a refreshing change of pace and could significantly benefit exhibitors catering to A24's audience.

In wider releases, "Street Fighter" is projected to be the No. 1 film with an estimated $30 million domestic opening, though some sources suggest a lower $22-25 million. "Whalefall," a survival thriller about a scuba diver swallowed by a whale, is expected to open with $12 million domestically. Focus Features' "Sense & Sensibility" is projected for an $8 million opening.