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Prediction Markets Clash Over Cardi B's Halftime Role
12 Feb
Summary
- Cardi B's Super Bowl halftime appearance sparked debate on prediction markets.
- Markets debated whether dancing and lip-syncing constituted 'performing'.
- Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket refunded traders due to ambiguity.
The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show became a focal point for prediction markets, particularly concerning Cardi B's participation. Users who wagered on whether she would 'perform' found themselves in a grey area, as definitions of 'performance' varied across platforms.
While Cardi B was seen dancing and appearing to sing, she lacked a dedicated singing role and was not mic'd up, unlike other guest performers. This distinction led to disputes on Kalshi and Polymarket, with traders contesting the resolution of event contracts.
Kalshi eventually refunded participants, settling contracts at the last traded price due to the ambiguity. Over $47.3 million was traded on Kalshi's market for Cardi B's appearance. Polymarket also saw significant activity, with over $10 million traded on a similar contract.
Other platforms like FanDuel Sportsbook in Ontario and Fanatics offered markets on 'guest appearances' or 'performing,' defining it to include singing, speaking, or dancing. These platforms generally paid out based on physical appearance during the halftime show.
